Factal
Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
Week of Aug. 16-23
A Look Ahead
Aug. 17 Nusantara inaugurated as the capital of Indonesia
On Saturday, President Joko Widodo will officially inaugurate Nusantara as Indonesia’s capital city, replacing Jakarta.
| What’s happened so far The inauguration is set to take place during Indonesia’s independence day, marking the first time in history it will be dually celebrated in both Jakarta and Nusantara. Widodo, whose years-long plan has been to create a new megacity in the East Kalimantan province on Borneo island, has already held his first cabinet meeting there as construction of the new city continues. President-elect Prabowo Subianto has also said he is committed to continuing the construction of Nusantara to relocate Jakarta, the fastest-sinking city in the world, by 2045. | The impact The construction of Nusantara is an incredibly sizable feat, a $33 billion project that aims to create a bustling and modern city in the midst of the Borneo jungle. Development has continued slowly with the presidential palace being completed recently ahead of Saturday’s inauguration. The construction of the city is mired in issues, including possible deforestation, budgetary requirements, and urgency, as Jakarta, while maintaining itself as “special city” due to its economic prowess, continues to sink quickly – 40 percent of the metropolitan city is now below sea-level. With both the current president and the president-elect vowing to continue the project, it is yet to be seen how quickly the city, its transport hubs, residences and buildings can be constructed, with foreign investment being vital to the progress. |
Aug. 19 Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago
An estimated 50,000 visitors will descend on Chicago starting Monday, as Democrats officially present Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate, following a virtual roll call vote earlier this month.
| What’s happened so far An already tumultuous race was jolted in July by President Joe Biden’s announcement he would drop his bid for re-election, with the party quickly coalescing around Harris as his replacement. Harris then tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, with the ticket running neck-and-neck with Republican Donald Trump in the latest polling both nationally and in key swing states. Biden is expected to speak on the convention’s first night, with former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton also slated to address delegates. Harris will deliver her acceptance speech on Thursday night. | The impact Police have warned demonstrators that, “there will be no rioting tolerated” as officials look to avoid any incidents that invoke the unrest that marred the 1968 convention, or the George Floyd protests of 2020. While the Democratic ticket has gotten a significant polling boost following its change at the top, it remains to be seen if Harris will also receive the “bounce” that usually follows the convention. |
Aug. 20 New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez to resign over bribery conviction
U.S. Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez will resign Tuesday, after serving more than 30 years in Congress.
| What’s happened so far The resignation comes after Menendez was convicted on all 16 counts he faced in a federal corruption trial for his role in a yearslong bribery scheme. He became the first sitting member of Congress charged with conspiracy to act as a foreign agent in connection with corruption schemes he operated on behalf of the Egyptian and Qatari governments. | The impact Menendez’s Senate seat will be filled by a replacement appointed by the state’s Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy through the conclusion of the term, which will end on Jan. 3, 2025. Voters will also pick a successor in November for the next six-year term, with Democratic Rep. Andy Kim leading in recent polls. |
Aug. 20 Taiwan to hold missile drills off its eastern coast
A series of live-fire exercises are set to take place in waters off Taiwan’s Taitung starting Tuesday.
| What’s happened so far Taiwan’s military has been increasing efforts to bolster defense amid rising tensions with China. While Chinese military aircraft and vessels regularly carry out “patrols” in the Taiwan Strait, China’s People’s Liberation Army has been increasing its presence along the island’s eastern coast since earlier this year, significantly including waters east of Hualien into its war game for the first time in the Joint Sword-2024A “punishment drill,” three days after President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration in May. Taiwan’s annual Han Kaung military exercise in July, which focused on the military’s new command system and non-scripted war simulation, was cut short to facilitate typhoon disaster relief. | The impact Taiwan’s air force plans to test its defense abilities, this time along the eastern coast and waters near Orchid Island. According to reports, the drill will test the precision of all three types of Taiwan’s main combat aircraft, equipped with self-developed and U.S.-made missiles. The fishery agency has asked other aircraft and vessels to avoid the restricted zone during the exercises. |
Aug. 22 Canadian railway workers strike
Management from Canada’s two largest rail conglomerates said they will lock out workers if no collective bargaining agreement is reached with the union by Thursday.
| What’s happened so far Taiwan’s military has been increasing efforts to bolster defense amid rising tensions with China. While Chinese military aircraft and vessels regularly carry out “patrols” in the Taiwan Strait, China’s People’s Liberation Army has been increasing its presence along the island’s eastern coast since earlier this year, significantly including waters east of Hualien into its war game for the first time in the Joint Sword-2024A “punishment drill,” three days after President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration in May. Taiwan’s annual Han Kaung military exercise in July, which focused on the military’s new command system and non-scripted war simulation, was cut short to facilitate typhoon disaster relief. | The impact Taiwan’s air force plans to test its defense abilities, this time along the eastern coast and waters near Orchid Island. According to reports, the drill will test the precision of all three types of Taiwan’s main combat aircraft, equipped with self-developed and U.S.-made missiles. The fishery agency has asked other aircraft and vessels to avoid the restricted zone during the exercises. |
What else matters
(Photo: Greece Civil Protection / X)
Greece wildfires
Hundreds of Greek firefighters have worked to contain a large wildfire burning in the northern suburbs of Athens after it broke out in northeastern Attica region on Aug. 11. Thousands of residents were forced to evacuate their homes as the wildfire spread to residential communities, reaching schools, hospitals and fuel stations with eyewitnesses reporting explosions in the area. The body of a woman was found on Tuesday in the northern suburb of Vrilissia, marking the first fatality of Greece’s summer wildfire season. As a result, Greece activated the European Civil Protection Mechanism appealing for support from multiple EU countries in tackling the Attica wildfires.
| Watch for: As containment efforts continue in Greece’s Attica region, the extent of damage and the exact injury toll remain to be seen. The Mediterranean country has experienced its hottest June and July months on record and meteorological conditions suggest Greece is on track for the hottest summer in its history. |
Ukraine’s ongoing incursion in Russia’s Kursk region
The Ukrainian army’s cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk region has entered its second week. Although progress has slowed as Russia funnels reinforcements into the region, the Ukrainian military said they control around 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. Tens of thousands of people are being evacuated from areas affected by the fighting in Kursk region and, in Russia’s neighboring Belgorod region, evacuations have begun in Krasnoyaruzhsky district amid reports of fighting spilling over. Russian President Vladimir Putin has branded the incursion as the “latest mass provocation” by the Ukrainians and pledged to “drive out the enemy”, meanwhile Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said war is coming to Russia and the offensive is putting the necessary pressure on Russia.
| Watch for: The Ukrainian government gave the first indications of the objections of the Kursk incursion this week with the foreign ministry stating the country had no interest in seizing Russian territory. “The sooner Russia agrees to restore a just peace… the sooner the raids by the Ukrainian defense forces into Russia will stop,” Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesperson Tykhy said. He added the incursion aimed to protect Ukraine’s Sumy region from more strikes and would disrupt Russian troop transfers to the Donetsk region where Ukraine continues to lose ground. Ukrainian advances are likely to continue in the Kursk region and may expand into Belgorod as Russia deploys reinforcements. While Ukraine’s long-term goal may be to force Russia into peace talks, in the near term Russia is highly likely to step-up strikes and attacks across Ukraine in retaliation after being caught off guard. |
Deadly plane crash in Brazil
Officials are investigating if Brazil’s deadliest plane crash in years could have been avoided. On Aug. 9, an ATR 72 twin-engine turboprop carrying 62 people from Cascavel to Guarulhos crashed in Vinhedo. Videos show the plane, operated by local airline Voepass, went into a flat spin and never recovered. The crash occurred in the same area as a warning for severe icing. The plane, however, never reported adverse weather or declared an emergency. Rescuers later confirmed no one onboard the plane survived the crash.
| Watch for: The investigation into the crash will take months and involve several countries, including France and Canada, where the plane and engines were manufactured. The investigation will also take into account whether the plane can appropriately handle icing, with the incident drawing comparisons to a 1994 American Eagle crash in Indiana that left 68 people dead. It could lead to a worldwide suspension of these planes where icing could be an issue. |
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Aug. 16-23
Aug. 17
- Nusantara officially inaugurated as the capital of Indonesia, replacing Jakarta
Aug. 19
- Democratic National Convention begins in Chicago
Aug. 20
- New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez to resign over bribery conviction
- Taiwan Navy to conduct missile drills
Aug. 22
- Reported U.S.-Chinese trade talks
- Canada railways warn of lockout without labor deal
Aug. 23
- Planned S&P Global review of Kenya’s sovereign credit
Aug. 24-30
Aug. 24
- Ukraine’s Independence Day
Aug. 26
- Indonesian military hosting Super Garuda Shield 2024
Aug. 28
- 2024 Summer Paralympics begin in Paris
Aug. 31-Sept. 6
Aug. 31
- 66th session of Mexico’s Congress convenes
Sept. 1
- Azerbaijan’s parliamentary election
Sept. 6
- NFL holds Eagles-Packers game in São Paulo
Sept. 7-13
Sept. 10
- Jordan parliamentary elections
- CNN presidential debate
Thanks for reading! If you’d like the Factal Forecast in your inbox, you can sign up for free.
Top photo: Indonesian President Joko Widodo, cabinet members and governors meet in the center of Nusantara on March 14, 2022. (Photo: Presidential Secretariat Photo by Laily Rachev)
Factal gives companies the facts they need in real time to protect people, avoid disruptions and drive automation when the unexpected happens.
Try Factal for free or talk with our sales team (sales@factal.com) for a demo.