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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally on Saturday left the Republican nominee for office injured, one attendee dead, at least two more wounded and the world in shock. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Joe Veyera discuss the latest developments, notable reactions and what to watch for next.
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Week of July 19-26
A Look Ahead
July 19 – World Court delivers opinion on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories
The World Court will deliver its final legal opinion Friday regarding Israel’s occupation of Palestine.
| What’s happened so far The World Court, or International Court of Justice (ICJ), is a United Nations-affiliated court that is the only international court adjudicating disputes between nations and providing international legal opinions. The ICJ opinion follows a record 52 countries presenting arguments about Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories in February. | The impact Any ICJ opinion will likely have little to no impact on Israel’s ongoing military operation in the Gaza Strip that has been described as indiscriminate even by U.S. President Biden. While Israel’s air war on Gaza continues into its 10th month despite immense civilian collateral damage in the densely-populated enclave, violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank continues to surge as well both as a result of Israeli military raids and extremist settler violence. Though Israel has historically reacted to international legal opinions by claiming bias, the ICJ ruling against Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories could exert further political pressure on Tel Aviv’s western backers. |
July 20 – Colombia installs new National Congress
The Colombian National Congress will be installed by President Gustavo Petro on Saturday.
| What’s happened so far The ceremony marks the start of the 2024-2025 legislative year at the Colombian chamber and it will include the appointment of parliamentary commissions, the election of the president, vice presidents and secretary general of the country’s senate, and the oath of office of elected senators and representatives. | The impact Petro denied opposition reports of a possible order from the executive to close the National Congress and summon a constituent assembly. Such rumors emerged after civil society organizations, activists and unions affiliated with the president’s coalition government called for a rally at the Colombian capital on July 20, coinciding with the installation of the chamber, to endorse the social reforms enforced by the government. The rally has been postponed until September. |
What Factal will be watching for during Paris 2024
As with any major global event, Factal editors will be closely monitoring the potential for disruptions throughout the Games, amid concerns over everything from cyber attacks and terrorism to protests and extreme weather.
July 22 – Taiwan’s Han Kuang military exercise
Taiwan will stage its annual live-fire drill next week, with this year’s exercise taking place over a five-day period starting Monday.
| What’s happened so far Under its newly appointed defense minister Koo Li-Hsiung, Taiwan’s military has announced major changes to the large-scale demonstration this year, including canceling live-fire routines on its main island, introducing 24-hour war simulation with non-scripted scenarios, and testing the military’s decentralized command system. According to the chief admiral, these changes were made to reflect criticism of past drills being “photo-ops” for the country’s leadership and to better familiarize soldiers with the unpredictable nature of real war. | The impact Following the inauguration of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, China has been sending more warplanes and naval vessels across the strait, including a record of 66 aircraft near the island last week. Earlier in July, the Chinese Coast Guard seized a Taiwanese fishing boat over “illegal fishing” in waters near the Kinmen Islands, and tension remains high as the Chinese authorities refuse to release its five crew members. With pressure rising within the Taiwan Strait, experts will be keeping a close eye on efforts by both China and Taiwan to boost their military capabilities. |
July 24 – Netanyahu to address joint session of U.S. Congress
Amid a war in Gaza that has left thousands of men, women and children dead, the leader of Israel will head to Capitol Hill on Wednesday for a high-profile speech to U.S. lawmakers.
| What’s happened so far Benjamin Netanyahu last addressed Congress in 2015, angering Congressional Democrats and then-President Barack Obama for his criticism of the Iran nuclear deal. Eight-and-a-half years later, Hamas masterminded the deadliest attack in Israeli history last October. The last few months have seen a bloody escalation from Israel which prompted international outrage over the scores of deaths of Palestinians. The United States even temporarily withheld some military aid and has repeatedly called for a ceasefire. But Israel has stated the conflict will not end until “its goals are achieved,” including the release of hostages and elimination of Hamas leadership. | The impact Netanyahu’s speech will likely lead to large protests in Washington, D.C., both inside of Congress and outside. A police official claimed the area could see its largest demonstrations since the Jan. 6 attack and the U.S. Capitol police department is planning to counter that with a larger number of officer deployments. |
July 26 – Olympics opening ceremony in Paris
Athletes from all over the world will sail down Paris’s Seine River on Friday night in the first Olympic opening ceremony ever held outside of a stadium.
| What’s happened so far While some early rugby and soccer matches will begin on Wednesday, Friday night’s event will represent an ambitious new approach to the Olympic opening ceremonies. More than 100 boats will sail east to west down the Seine River at sunset as fans cheer them on from the river’s banks. More than 10,000 athletes will be on the flotilla, representing more than 200 national teams. Dancers and musicians will be positioned on the numerous bridges over the river. The French flag delegation will be led by swimmer Florent Manadou and discus thrower Mélina Robert-Michon, but it is unclear who will light the final Olympic torch of the relay. | The impact More than 45,000 members of French security forces will be deployed over a 6-kilometer area to protect more than 300,000 expected spectators. At the same time, airspace will be closed within a 90-kilometer radius of the city. French officials are particularly wary of a rise in terror attacks on the city, such as the 18-year-old ethnic Chechen who was arrested in the end of May for planning attacks on Olympic events. Another potential threat to the opening ceremonies is the high pollution levels and boating conditions in the Seine River, whose choppy waters prompted the cancellation of a rehearsal event. |
What Else Matters
Trump shooting
One person was killed, and several others were hurt — including former President Donald Trump — following a shooting at a campaign rally Saturday in Butler, Pa. The suspect, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was killed by police.
| Watch for: On social media, Trump said a bullet “pierced the upper part of my right ear,” but the incident did not prevent him from appearing at the first night of the Republican National Convention on Monday in Milwaukee alongside his vice presidential pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance. It remains unclear what motive, if any, the suspect had, but the FBI says it is investigating the assassination attempt as a potential act of domestic terrorism. Security preparations surrounding Saturday’s rally have come under significant scrutiny in the wake of the attack — especially after it was revealed that protection for the former president had been raised recently in light of an Iranian threat on his life — with several Republican lawmakers calling for new leadership at the Secret Service. |
Student protests in Bangladesh
Nationwide student protests against a government jobs quota has left at least six people dead and hundreds injured in Bangladesh after demonstrations turned violent on Monday. Protesters demand an end to a system that, among other quotas, reserves 30 percent of government jobs for the family members of freedom fighters who fought in Bangladesh’s war of independence in 1971 against Pakistan. Amid a high youth employment rate and slow job growth, government jobs with their regular wage hikes and other benefits are a more lucrative option for some 400,000 graduates every year.
| Watch for: The unrest continued into Wednesday, with the government ordering an indefinite closure of all schools and universities across the country. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has defended the quota system, but protesters accuse her of favoring her own supporters since her party helped fight in the independence movement in 1971. The quota system was temporarily halted in 2018 following mass student protests, but the Dhaka High Court reinstated the quota in June. Despite a one-month suspension of the decision by the country’s Supreme Court, protests are likely to remain ongoing. The Supreme Court’s full verdict is expected in early August with the protests likely to continue across the country. |
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 19-26
July 19
- World Court to deliver opinion on Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories
July 20
- Colombia installs new National Congress
July 22
- Taiwan’s Han Kuang military live-fire exercise
July 24
- Israeli PM Netanyahu to address joint session of U.S. Congress
- Thai court hearing for case to remove PM
July 26
- 2024 Summer Olympics begin in Paris
July 27-Aug. 2
July 28
- Venezuela presidential elections
Aug. 1
- Iceland president takes office
Aug. 3-9
Aug. 4
- Sydney’s mega metro rail line opens under harbour
Aug. 7
- Bangladesh Supreme Court to publish full verdict on government job quota system
Aug. 10-16
Aug. 13
- WSJ journalist Evan Gershkovich hearing in Russia
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