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Welcome to Factal Forecast, a look at the week’s biggest stories from the editors at Factal.
We publish our forward-looking note each Thursday to help you get a jump-start on the week ahead.
At least six people were killed in Israeli airstrikes on sites in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday, including five Hamas members and one Qatari security official. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Ahmed Namatalla discuss the unprecedented nature of the attack, possible impacts on peace and the backlash that has ensued.
Listen now or download on your favorite platform.
Week of Sept. 12-19
A Look Ahead
Sept. 15 Syria parliamentary elections
The makeup of Syria’s first post-Assad parliament will be chosen over five days starting Monday as the country’s leadership attempts to remake state institutions and distance them from decades of dictatorship.
What’s happened so far
In this indirect system, committees will select 140 of the 210 representatives in the People’s Assembly of Syria, using a province-based electoral college system, with the remaining 70 seats appointed by the country’s president. These are the first elections to be held since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 and the establishment of a transitional government led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa.
The impact
Although Syria’s public will not be able to vote in this election, with President al-Sharaa citing a lack of infrastructure following a ruinous civil war that left over half a million people dead and many more displaced, the makeup of the assembly will be watched closely by regional capitals and beyond. Syria is seeking to normalize its relationship with key players in the region as it attempts to rebuild, and has promised a return to democracy, but not in the short term, with it potentially taking years.
Sept. 16 Malawi general election
Voters in Malawi will elect a president, parliamentary members and hundreds of local government councillors in a general election on Tuesday.
What’s happened so far
The country’s last general election was held in May 2019, in which then-incumbent President Peter Mutharika of the central Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was re-elected. But in February 2020, Malawi’s Constitutional Court annulled the election results amid widespread allegations of irregularities and ordered a re-run for the presidential vote. Malawi’s government chose to implement a new system whereby a presidential candidate needs to receive more than 50 percent of the total votes in the first round in order to win the presidency. Lazarus Chakwera, of the center-right Malawi Congress Party (MCP) was elected president in the re-run, receiving 59 percent of the votes.
The impact
Although there are 17 candidates running for the presidency, Chakwera and Mutharika are set to face each other at the polls. Analysts predict that neither candidate is likely to reach an outright majority in the first round, forcing a run-off during which the MCP and DPP parties will need to form tactical coalitions with other smaller parties in order to secure a victory. The economy and corruption are two of the most important issues for Malawian voters, who will also be looking to see if the electoral commission is able to maintain a transparent and independent election.
Sept. 17 U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates
The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a decision Wednesday on potential changes to its key interest rate.
What’s happened so far
The decision will come after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised jobs numbers Tuesday, showing the economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated. The department earlier released a jobs report showing that the economy generated only 22,000 jobs last month while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, the highest since 2021. President Donald Trump has pressed for rate cuts, criticizing the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell. Last month, Powell indicated that the Fed might cut interest rates in the near future.
The impact
Traders expect the Fed to lower the overnight fund rate by at least a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, with at least one further cut expected later in the year. A Fed rate cut could help to bolster the job market, lowering borrowing costs and interest rates. However, it could also lead to higher inflation. Wednesday’s decision will also be influenced by the release today and yesterday of two inflation reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index.
Sept. 17 Trump’s second U.K. state visit
U.S. President Donald Trump will be in the United Kingdom starting Wednesday for an unprecedented second state visit during tensions over tariffs.
What’s happened so far
In 2019, Queen Elizabeth II hosted President Trump and the First Lady during his first term, triggering large protests in London. Thousands gathered in Trafalgar Square with a speech from Jeremy Corbyn, the then-leader of the Labour Party, and a large blimp of Trump as a baby. However, Trump was kept away from many of those protesters, thanks to widespread road closures. In February, Prime Minister Keir Starmer gave Trump a letter from King Charles III inviting him for another state visit, which has never been done for a U.S. president.
The impact
This state visit, which will be held at Windsor Castle while Buckingham Palace undergoes renovations, will come with a major security operation at the same time. The area will be a no-fly zone, except for police helicopters and dozens of security drones which will monitor protesters, which many expect to be bigger this time around. Trump is expected to bring several tech CEOs, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, OpenAI’s Sam Altman and possibly Apple’s Tim Cook, to the state banquet, giving credence to the thought that the state visit is a tactic to get a trade deal done.
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Sept. 18 French Labour Trade Union chief announces nationwide strike action over budget draft
Some of France’s largest trade unions have committed to a nationwide strike action on Thursday, coming on the heels of the more decentralized Block Everything demonstrations of Sept. 10.
What’s happened so far
Ousted Prime Minister Francois Bayrou angered organized labor with his budget proposal this summer, which would have raised taxes, cut spending and scrapped two public holidays. On Aug. 29, a coalition of the country’s biggest labor unions, including the General Confederation of Labour, the French Democratic Confederation of Labour and the National Union of Autonomous Trade Unions, announced a widespread strike action set for Sep. 18, impacting airports, train services and public hospitals. At the same time, the decentralized “Bloquons Tout” protest movement emerged to organize Sep. 10 widespread protests.
The impact
Pushback on Bayrou’s budget proposal ultimately pushed the centrist statesman to call a vote of confidence for his government. The vote failed on Sept. 9, causing the collapse of the government and Macron’s appointment of Sebastian Lecornu to the prime ministership. France’s unions have yet to clarify if the reshuffling of the National Assembly will impact their plans for Sept. 18. Impacts to public transport, particularly in Paris, are expected to begin well before next Thursday.
Sept. 18 Canadian prime minister to visit Mexico
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Thursday, as senior officials told the media on condition of anonymity in August.
What’s happened so far
The visit comes after months of tensions between the United States and Mexico over tariffs (members’ link), immigration and security and ahead of a review of the free trade agreement between Mexico, Canada and the U.S. in the coming year. The Trump administration increased tariffs on Canadian goods not included in the free trade agreement to 35 percent in August after failed negotiations between both countries. Mexico remains within the 90-day grace period extension granted by the U.S. government.
The impact
The aim of the trip is to strengthen ties with Mexico amidst shared tensions with the United States as part of Carney’s efforts to avoid his country’s reliance on its neighbor. Canada’s foreign and finance ministers traveled to Mexico City in August to meet Sheinbaum and a group of Canadian and Mexican business leaders. “Port-to-pot” trade was discussed during the visit. Carney and Sheinbaum are expected to address supply chain reinforcement and essential infrastructure to increase bilateral trade.
What Else Matters
Anti-government protests in Nepal
At least 34 people died and hundreds more were injured as anti-government protests escalated across Nepal this past week. The demonstrations initially sparked in response to a deeply unpopular attempt to ban social media by the Nepali government, but were also driven by a long-standing undercurrent of discontent in Nepal over what many saw as widespread government corruption. Law enforcement’s deadly crackdown on youth-led protests on Monday only fanned the flames, leading to even more unrest on Tuesday, despite government leaders resigning and rolling back the social media ban.
Watch for: Nepal’s Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and two other ministers have already resigned, and the social media ban has been rescinded, but unrest seems likely to continue across the country as protesters may still demand the dissolution of the government and even greater change. Foreign embassies in Nepal have advised their citizens to shelter in place and defer travel to the country. Airports, government buildings, politicians’ homes and hotels have all been damaged in the chaos.
Israeli strikes in Qatar
Israel attacked Qatar’s capital of Doha with multiple airstrikes on Tuesday, marking its first ever targeting of a Gulf Arab country. Israel said it was targeting officials of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the same ones it’s indirectly negotiating with on a United States-proposed ceasefire in Gaza. Hamas said the assassination attempt “failed.” Israel continues to advance its plan for a major military offensive to expel an estimated 1 million Palestinians and occupy Gaza City.
Watch for: The attack took place in Doha’s diplomatic district, filled with embassies, schools and homes of Qataris and expats. It marks the continued expansion of Israel’s military activity in the Middle East with no apparent checks or deterrents in the presence of strong U.S. backing and absence of any balancing military powers in the region. If Hamas’ leaders in Doha are confirmed to have escaped unharmed, heightened risk remains of Israel targeting them in the future in the same country or elsewhere where they’ve been known to spend time, such as Turkey and Egypt. U.S. President Donald Trump distanced his administration from the attack, but also “assured” the Qataris that “such a thing will not happen again on their soil.”
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
Sept. 12-19
Sept. 13
- Indian PM Modi likely to visit violence-hit Manipur, Mizoram
Sept. 14
- 77th Primetime Emmy Awards
Sept. 15
- Syria parliamentary elections
Sept. 16
- Malawi general election
Sept. 17
- U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates
- Trump’s second U.K. state visit
Sept. 18
- French Labour Trade Union Chief announces nationwide strike action over budget draft
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to visit Mexico
Sept. 20-26
Sept. 21
- Guinea’s junta holds referendum on Constitution
Sept. 22
- Trump goes to UNGA
- Enhanced security measures at Indian airports begins
Sept. 23
- Uganda presidential election nominations
- ICC confirmation of charges hearing for former Philippine President Duterte
Sept. 27-Oct. 3
Sept. 27
- Papua New Guinea local government polling starts
- Iceland parliamentary elections
- Seychelles general election
Sept. 28
- Moldovan parliamentary election
- Dutch carrier KLM to resume Tel Aviv-Amsterdam route
Sept. 29
- Blue Origin’s 2nd New Glenn rocket launch will fly twin NASA Mars probes to space
Sept. 30
- U.S. government funding set to expire, leading to possible shutdown
Oct. 3
- Czech parliamentary election
- Sean “Diddy” Combs’s sentencing hearing
Oct. 4-10
Oct. 4
- Leadership election for Japan’s LDP
Oct. 5
- Cameroon presidential election
Oct. 9
- AG Pam Bondi will testify before U.S. House Judiciary Committee
Top photo: French trade unions are set to strike next Thursday, a little over a week after demonstrations on Sept. 10, which are pictured above in Belfort. (Photo: Thomas Bresson / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA)
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