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At least 160 people have died in clashes between Syria’s Druze and Bedouin communities this week, with more presumed dead after Israel struck Damascus Wednesday, claiming defense of the Druze. In this week’s Factal Forecast podcast, Senior Editor Jimmy Lovaas and Editor Agnese Boffano discuss news of a possible ceasefire, implications on relations in the region, and what to watch for next.
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Week of July 18-25
A Look Ahead
July 20 – Japan upper house election
On Sunday, voters in Japan will choose representatives in the upper house of the country’s parliament in a key test of support for embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
What’s happened so far
Half of the 248 seats in the House of Councillors, the upper house of Japan’s parliament, are up for grabs with each representative serving a three-year term. Recent local elections in Tokyo saw strong gains for populist parties amid public frustration over an ongoing cost of living crisis. New surges in the price of rice, a contentious national issue that gained global attention, have eased as supplies normalize, but inflation and the cost of living remain a top issue for voters. Ishiba, who took personal responsibility for getting the prices under control, has struggled to assert his leadership following October’s snap election in which his coalition lost its lower house majority.
The impact
At least one poll shows the country’s ruling bloc may lose its grip on power, which would be a sharp rebuke of Ishiba, who took power in 2024 following a leadership challenge. A poor showing at the polls could trigger calls for his resignation or ignite a new internal challenge within his Liberal Democratic Party.
July 21 – Indian Parliament’s Monsoon Session starts
India’s parliament will begin its second legislative session of the year on Monday, with a slew of new bills, domestic and foreign policy issues expected to be on the agenda.
What’s happened so far
This upcoming parliament session will be the first held since the deadly Pahalgam terror attack that sparked a brief conflict between India and Pakistan earlier this year. Opposition parties have been critical of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi for not calling a special session sooner after the attack.
The impact
Parliament will hold 21 sittings between July 21 and Aug. 21, with holidays scheduled for Independence Day celebrations. The Pahalgam attack and Operation Sindoor, India’s foreign relations and a voter list revision in Bihar are very likely to be discussed, as well as eight new bills.
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July 21 – United Airlines to resume flights from New Jersey to Tel Aviv
For the first time since June 11, United Airlines will connect New York’s tri-state area and Israel, the world’s two biggest Jewish population centers, with a direct flight starting Monday.
What’s happened so far
United, and all other American airlines, halted service to Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport on June 12 after the Israeli military struck several targets in Tehran. All flights were then grounded at Ben Gurion for the following 10 days as the two countries fought a long-distance war with thousands of missiles and drones flying overhead. The June 24 ceasefire prompted some commercial flights to return to Ben Gurion, beginning with Israeli and then some European airlines.
The impact
The U.S. State Department still has a level three “reconsider travel” advisory in place for Israel and the West Bank due to the near constant threat of Houthi attacks and local militants groups. Prior to June 12, Delta and American Airlines were the only other carriers offering direct flights to Tel Aviv, with both since delaying a resumption of service until at least September. For their part, Iran reopened their airspace on July 3, and has seen an 80% drop in international flights since. For Israel, limits will likely continue to impact the country’s massively diminished tourism sector, which saw 5 million international visitors in 2019, but only 1 million in the past year.
July 22 – U.K.’s new immigration rules come into force
The Immigration White Paper, introduced by the British government earlier this year, will come into effect Tuesday, with new set of rules and limitations to those coming into the country.
What’s happened so far
The government, led by the Labour Party since last year, introduced a new set of rules aimed at ending the U.K.’s reliance on overseas workers and cutting immigration numbers. Each sector will be required to have a strategy in place to train and employ British workers, rather than relying on overseas, lower skilled recruitment, and the current immigration salary list will be abolished.
The impact
The changes come as Prime Minister Keir Starmer accused the previous government of running an immigration system that “relied on cheap foreign labor.” However, the new policy has been strongly criticized, with one of the most controversial changes introduced in this plan being the inability of people coming to work in the country to bring dependents. The Confederation of British Industry said that, while certain rumoured changes including the scrapping of the graduate visa and introduction of a net migration cap were not introduced, restrictions on visas for lower skilled roles will pose challenges for sectors that are battling the effects of labor shortages. Further policies will be introduced later this year, including raising sponsorship fees for overseas workers under certain visa routes and introducing tougher language requirements.
July 23 – World Court to issue climate change opinion
The International Court of Justice will announce on Wednesday if countries are legally obligated to fight climate change.
What’s happened so far
In March 2023, the United Nations General Assembly requested a ruling from the ICJ on two questions: does a country have an obligation to stop greenhouse gases and if so, what are the legal consequences for a country that caused significant harm to another country that’s vulnerable to climate change, like Vanuatu, which led the push to get a ruling. Dozens of countries, including the United States and China, made statements to the court last December. No other ICJ case has ever seen that many participants, underscoring the importance of the topic.
The impact
Although the court’s opinion is not legally binding, it will carry significant weight in the international community. The ruling could influence countries on their current or future participation in climate policies or treaties. Saudi Arabia argued any further obligations could undermine treaties like the Paris Accords. The coming opinion may also substantiate the climate justice movement, which declares that the people who are least responsible for climate change are usually the ones most affected by it.
July 24 – Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian aircraft scheduled to end
Restrictions on Pakistan and India’s airspace on each other’s aircraft are set to be lifted on Thursday, amid fragile ties between the two countries following conflicts in May.
What’s happened so far
Pakistan first announced closure of its airspace to Indian airlines in April, after the relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbors plummeted over a deadly attack targeting Hindu tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir in April, which New Delhi blamed on Islamabad. The series of tit-for-tat measures quickly escalated into military confrontation, with India launching missile strikes across the border targeting what New Delhi called “terrorist infrastructure” and Pakistan retaliating with missiles, fighter jets and artillery.
The impact
Despite the two countries agreeing to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on May 10, tension remains high between New Delhi and Islamabad. India has made clear its intention to keep the key Indus Water Treaty in “abeyance,” while Islamabad called the unilateral move to suspend the key water treaty “an act of war.” Reports also suggest that India is planning on other retribution measures against Pakistan, such as opposing the upcoming World Bank funding to Islamabad and pushing the Financial Action Task Force to add Pakistan back onto its “grey-list.”
What Else Matters
Trump unveils new weapons plan for Ukraine
U.S. President Trump said he struck a deal with European NATO allies that will supply Ukraine with weapons in the first announcement of new military support for Ukraine since he re-entered the White House. The president’s statement came after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington and Trump said the Unites States’ NATO allies would purchase “billions of dollars” of equipment from America “that’s going to be quickly distributed to the battlefield.” Details on the quantity and type of arms that will be supplied are scanty, although Trump did confirm that Patriot missiles, which are used by Ukraine to defend against Russian missile barrages, will be included. The United States also issued a new deadline to Moscow, giving the Kremlin 50 days to make a deal to stop the fighting or face 100 percent tariffs on Russian goods and secondary tariffs on countries who trade with Russia.
Watch for: Many details remain unclear from the announced weapons deal but the reaction of the Russian stock market was telling, reporting 2% growth following Trump’s announcement. The jump may be indicative of buoyed investor confidence amid expectations that much harsher measures would be enacted when Trump pledged a “major statement” on Russia last week. Ahead of the announcement the Kremlin said it had always operated based on the premise the U.S. would continue to supply weapons to Kyiv, while reporting in state media described Trump’s words as a “decorative ultimatum” that Moscow barely noticed. Russia has shown no signals it is willing to make concessions in peace talks and has doubled down on its nightly missile and drone barrages on Ukraine. The threat of further punitive measures is unlikely to result in progress in peace talks as the Kremlin continues to push for international recognition of territory it has seized in Ukraine. Further weapons supplies to Ukraine, however, will be instrumental in halting recent Russian advances in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Syria fighting
Members of the Druze leadership announced a ceasefire with the Syrian government on Wednesday following days of deadly sectarian violence in the southern region of Sweida. The fighting initially broke out Friday between Druze and Bedouin residents of the province, with internal security forces of the Damascus-based government then intervening by deploying troops inside the Druze-majority area for the first time since the ousting of longtime President Bashar al-Assad last December. Meanwhile, Israel conducted a series of strikes on government positions in Sweida and the capital Damascus, severely damaging the defense ministry building in the downtown area of the capital among them.
Watch for: The past days of sectarian fighting in Sweida have highlighted the continued strained relationship that the Syrian government has with minority sects in the country, with accusations of extrajudicial killings of Druze civilians by government forces, reminiscent of the fighting with the Alawite minority in Latakia in March this year. Despite their announced ceasefire, it remains to be seen whether they are able to successfully curb the deadly fighting among such a divided society which has already led to the death of more than 370 people and the injury of hundreds of others. Although Israel claims to be striking government assets in order to protect the minority sect, analysts have hinted at the possible use of the Druze question as a justification for their continued physical presence in the country as a method to push Syria into normalising relations with them, a move that the current U.S. Trump administration would likely push for.
Extended Outlook
What’s on our radar in the coming weeks…
July 18-25
July 20
- Japan upper house election
July 21
- United Airlines to resume flights from New York to Tel Aviv
- Indian Parliament’s Monsoon Session starts
July 22
- U.K.’s new immigration rules come into force
July 23
- World Court to issue climate change opinion
July 24
- Pakistan’s airspace closure to Indian aircraft scheduled to end
July 25
- Former U.S. Congressman George Santos to report to prison
July 26-Aug. 1
July 26
- Recall vote for 24 opposition lawmakers in Taiwan
July 27
- 2025 Tour de France final stage
- Supreme Court’s 30-day pause on Trump’s birthright citizenship order ends
July 28
- Philippine President Marcos’ fourth State of the Nation Address
July 30
- Last court hearing for former Thai PM Thaksin over hospital stay in lieu of prison
July 31
- Lollapalooza in Chicago’s Grant Park begins
- NOAA discontinues weather forecasting data satellite program
Aug. 2-8
Aug. 3
- U.S. ends extended deportation protections for Haitians
Aug. 5
- Bangladesh’s first Student-People Uprising Day holiday
Aug. 9-15
Aug. 15
- Taiwan president to visit Paraguay
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